As contrarian value investors, our mandate at HCM Value is straightforward: accumulate durable, mispriced assets with real intrinsic worth. But in an era of chronic monetary expansion, the deepest valuation challenge isn’t in equities, real estate, or commodities.
It’s in the measuring stick itself: the U.S. dollar.
From Bretton Woods to Fiat Decay
When the U.S. suspended the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the dollar was severed from gold and placed entirely in the hands of policymakers. It was the start of a half-century experiment in unconstrained fiat money.
The results are unequivocal.
By official CPI data, the dollar has lost ~87% of its purchasing power since 1971.
One 1971 dollar buys roughly 13 cents of today’s goods and services.Using a pre-1996 CPI methodology—before substitution and hedonic adjustments softened inflation reporting—the decline is closer to 96%.
Every 1971 dollar is now worth about 4 cents in real terms.
That’s what fifty-plus years of “managed money” have delivered.
And this debasement didn’t occur during a period of national decline. It happened during one of the strongest economic half-centuries in American history—an era defined by world-leading innovation, corporate profitability, technological progress, and U.S. dominance at the center of global finance. The tragedy is that a structurally robust, dynamic economy was treated as if it required permanent monetary life support. The economy thrived; the currency quietly eroded underneath it.
The Great Moderation Was a Mirage
This erosion wasn’t linear. From the 1990s through around 2020, inflation appeared subdued. The “Great Moderation” narrative took hold: central banks could expand liquidity aggressively without triggering inflation. That confidence was misplaced.
The low inflation of that era was not monetary genius—it was a globalization dividend:
China’s integration into global trade
Offshoring and supply-chain optimization
Stagnant commodity prices
A flood of low-cost manufactured goods
These forces exported deflation to the West and masked the real effects of loose monetary policy. Policymakers misinterpreted a one-time structural shift as a new equilibrium. They believed they had discovered a model where money printing had no cost.
History says otherwise. Across centuries, fiat currencies have declined. Calm periods aren’t the end of inflationary pressures—they’re the setup for the next surge. Post-2020 exposed the fragility of the illusion.
The Real-World Ledger: Housing, Cars, Gas, Food
You don’t need an economic model to see what happened. The necessities of life tell the story plainly.
Housing
1971 median U.S. single-family home: $25,200
CPI-adjusted equivalent today: ~$225,000
Actual median today: $400,000+
Premium markets (e.g., Southlake, Texas): $1M+
Automobiles
1971 Mustang Mach 1: $3,268
CPI-adjusted: ~$29,200
Modern performance equivalent: $45,000+
Gasoline
1971 price: $0.36/gal
Today: ~$3.00+/gal
Even after ~2× efficiency gains, mobility costs are up roughly 10×
Basic groceries
1971 loaf of bread: $0.24
Today: ~$3.00+
A 12–13× increase—well above what official CPI implies
This isn’t cherry-picking. It’s shelter, transportation, food—the backbone of real-world living.
If the Fed Were a Money Manager
Imagine you hired an asset manager in 1971. After 54 years, he hands you your statement and proudly reports:
“You now have 4% of your original capital.”
You’d fire him on the spot and probably litigate.
Yet this is exactly what U.S. monetary policy has delivered to dollar savers—no prospectus, no disclosure, no performance reporting.
We call this “price stability.”
Hedonic adjustments can celebrate better TVs and faster phones, but pensions and retirees don’t eat electronics. They pay for housing, fuel, healthcare, and food—categories where inflation has been relentless.
What This Means for Allocators
This isn’t merely a philosophical critique of fiat money. It’s an allocation problem, and a serious one.
Equities have been the escape valve.
Since 1971, the S&P 500 has risen tens of thousands of percent in nominal terms. Even after adjusting for inflation, long-run real equity returns remain robust. The equity market has been the mechanism investors use to outrun monetary debasement.
Fixed income has been the casualty.
Across multiple regimes—especially when yields were artificially suppressed—bondholders have frequently earned negative real returns. The past few years simply made it obvious.
For value investors, the takeaway is blunt:
In a world where the dollar retains roughly 13% of its 1971 value by official metrics—and closer to 4% under earlier inflation measures—holding excess cash is choosing long-term value destruction.
Prudent stewardship requires exposure to real, cash-flowing assets:
undervalued equities with durable economics
real assets and commodity-linked businesses
selective foreign exposures with more disciplined monetary regimes
At HCM Value, that means focusing on discounted, durable claims on real economic activity—not hoarding a currency policymakers have repeatedly demonstrated they’re willing to dilute.
If your benchmark is nominal dollars, you can pretend the last half-century was a success.
If your benchmark is purchasing power, there’s only one honest conclusion:
You don’t beat debasement by sitting in cash. You beat it by owning assets that grow faster than the unit used to measure them.